RMNA

Why the RWSA Demand Projections are Too High

There is NOTHING more FUNDAMENTAL to the Community Water Supply Plan than an accurate DEMAND ANALYSIS. How much water will our community need in the future?

The current plan was sized according to a "Demand Analysis" that forecast how much water per day our community would need in 2055 (50 years.)

RWSA consultants, Gannett Fleming (GF), who have since been fired, based their study on several assumptions which have since proven wrong.

They used 30 years of data through 2001. However, starting in 2000, water use started to decline due to a number of sustainable conservation practices. It is now 25% below the projections the plan is based on.

If the decade-long decline in water use is factored into the projections, restoring the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir to 80% of its original capacity will yield enough capacity alone to satisfy a safe yield 25% below Gannett Fleming’s high estimates.

According to the state water planning guidelines and the AWWA, demand projections should be revisited every 10 years to assess accuracy. It has now been 10 years since the data was factored.

Restoring and preserving the resources WE ALREADY OWN combined with the emergency use of water sources already linked to the water treatment systems, such as Beaver Creek, Lake Albemarle, and Chris Greene as back up systems in the case of extreme drought would bring us above and beyond the even inflated safe yield numbers the current plan provides.

The 50-year water plan predicts that our community will use 18.7 mgd in 2055. However, factoring in new information on conservation reduces that number to 14 mgd.